Predicting Where Each QB Will End Up This Offseason
With one of the weakest quarterback draft classes in years, several current NFL QBs will find themselves on the move. Here’s where every NFL QB will end up this offseason:
Aaron Rodgers to the Denver Broncos
Green Bay Packers get: Bradley Chubb, Broncos 2022 first-round pick (9), Broncos 2022 second-round pick (41), Broncos 2023 first-round pick, Broncos 2024 first-round pick, Broncos 2025 first-round pick
Denver Broncos get: Aaron Rodgers
If I were the Denver Broncos, I would be willing to give up every first-round pick until 2030 for a guy like Rodgers, but due to NFL rules, they can only trade 4 years of picks in advance. Even in a division with Mahomes and Herbert, Rodgers instantly would become the best quarterback in the division, and he gets to work with his former OC Nathaniel Hackett as his coach. The Broncos have everything they need to compete for a super bowl except for a QB, which they haven’t had since Payton Manning. Obviously, the Packers want to keep Rodgers, but Rodgers has made it clear that, for whatever reason, he wants out. I’m not sure that life will be better for Rodgers with another team, but I can not wait to watch Rodgers play in the AFC West 6 times a year.
Russell Wilson to the Washington Commanders
Seattle Seahawks get: Chase Young, Commanders 2022 first-round pick (11), Commanders 2023 first-round pick, 2024 first-round pick
Washington Commanders get: Russell Wilson
The Washington Commanders haven’t won a playoff game since 2006 and have to be feeling desperate. Even without Chase Young, their defensive line is still extremely talented and their offense still has a lot of young weapons like Terry McClaurin and Antonio Gibson. This biggest question mark with a potential Russell Wilson trade is whether or not he actually wants to be traded, but I can’t see how the relationship between Pete Carroll and Russell Wilson gets better before next season, especially after Wilson’s worst season yet. The Seahawks should be looking to rebuild in the coming years, and as of right now don’t have a first-round pick because of the Jamal Adams trade.
Buccaneers trade for Deshaun Watson
Texans get: Buccaneers 2022 first-round pick, Buccaneer 2022 second-round pick, Shaq Barrett
Buccaneers get: Deshaun Watson
After posting MVP caliber numbers in 2020, Watson did not play in 2021 due to multiple cases of sexual assault and his hatred of the Texans organization. It makes no financial sense for the Texans to keep him around if refuses to play, and because of the uncertainty of Watson’s allegations, it’s certainly possible he has no trade value at all. However, if he plays anywhere near the level he did in 2020 next season with the Bucs, they will be legitimate Super Bowl contenders depending on how they handle free agency this offseason.
Derek Carr to the Cleveland Browns
Raiders get: Baker Mayfield, Browns 2022 first-round pick, Browns 2022 third-round pick
Browns get: Derek Carr
The Browns have one of the best all-around rosters in the league; they have a top tier edge rusher, top tier running game, top tier offensive line, but because of Baker Mayfield’s mediocre play this season, the Browns missed the playoffs for the third time in Mayfield’s four seasons with the Browns. If the Raiders are looking to trade Carr, which it seems like they are, then this is a no-brainer for both sides. Carr is not only a better leader and tougher than Mayfield, who clearly is not well-liked by his teammates, but he is a far better passer. Carr led the league in dropped passes that turned into interceptions and made Hunter Renfrow and Zay Jones look like Randy Moss and Wes Welker. With Carr, the Browns can not only make the playoffs but can even compete with the Ravens and Bengals for the division.
Jimmy Garoppolo to the Pittsburgh Steelers
49ers get: Steelers 2022 first-round Pick
Steelers get: Jimmy Garoppolo
In a previous article, I predicted that at most the 49ers could get a third-round pick for Garoppolo, which I considered a success. However, once Wilson and Rodgers are off the market, a team like the Steelers will be desperate for a QB like Jimmy G, and will likely have to overpay for Garoppolo, who, despite getting scrutinized more than any player in the league, is in the top half of QBs in the league.
Jameis Winston Signs With the Seattle Seahawks
Projection: 1 year, $6.5 million, can earn up to $12 million in incentives
If the Seahawks do trade Russell Wilson, they likely won’t be looking to spend their only first-round pick on a quarterback in such a week class, and they can likely sign Winston for cheap since he will be coming off a torn ACL. In the best-case scenario the Seahawks get a quarterback who can lead them to the playoffs for almost no money, worst-case scenario they can rebuild and not resign Winston.
Marcus Mariota Sign with the New Orleans Saints
Projection: 2 years, $16 million, $5 million guaranteed
As long as Dennis Allen is the coach of the Saints, they won’t sniff the playoffs anytime soon, no matter how weak the NFC South is next year. After starting out 8–28 as the HC for the Raiders, he was fired in the middle of his third season and has no business being a head coach again. Marcus Mariota is at least an exciting quarterback with experience who is able to win games and can maybe solidify himself as the starter for the Saints in years to come if he plays well in 2022.
New York Giants Keep Daniel Jones
Newly appointed general manager Joe Schoen has already said that Daniel Jones will be the Giants quarterback in 2022, and although I don’t know that I fully believe him, it makes sense for the Giants to use 2022 to see what they have in Jones as well as the rest of the roster. On paper, Jones is built like an ideal modern-day QB; he is tall, he can run and has a decent arm, but he has had three years of Pat Shurmur and Joe Judge as his coach. Jones deserves one last chance to prove he is a starting quarterback in this league, and who better to coach him than the guy who made Josh Allen a star?
Carolina Panthers Keep Sam Darnold
The Panthers would be naive to think that anyone would trade for Darnold after the season he just had, and even if the Panthers cut Darnold they still have to pay his $18.5 million 5th year option. The Darnold trade actually made sense to me at the time for the Panthers, but it has quickly turned into a worst-case scenario and the Panthers should already be looking ahead to 2023 since Matt Rhule is an awful NFL head coach and Darnold is a backup quarterback at best.
Atlanta Falcons Keep Matt Ryan
I think the Falcons are one of the few teams where it makes sense to draft and develop a quarterback. The only quarterbacks in this draft class with any shot of being a starting-caliber QB are still multi-year projects, but any of them would certainly benefit from at least 1 year behind Matt Ryan and getting to learn Arthur Smith’s offense. Matt Ryan hasn’t completely fallen off a cliff yet and deserves to finish his contract with the Falcons before they look to find another franchise QB.
Detroit Lions Keep Jared Goff
I think Dan Campbell is a good head coach, but the Lions should wait another year before drafting a quarterback which may ultimately cost him his job if the Lions aren’t patient. The Rams are currently paying nearly all of Goff’s salary and it would benefit the Lions to spend their draft picks this year on other positions of need, since the Lions aren’t looking to make the playoffs in 2022.
Indianapolis Colts Keep Carson Wentz
The Colts got absolutely fleeced last offseason when they traded a conditional first and a third-round pick for Carson Wentz, who was arguably the worst QB in the entire league in 2020. He definitely improved this year with Frank Reich as his head coach, but he still did not play like a 30 Million dollar QB and gave away a postseason spot in a loss to the Jaguars in week 18. However, there are no better options than Wentz, and the Colts likely can’t get better than a fourth-round pick for Wentz. At this point, the Colts are playing with house money, so they may as well run it back one more year with Wentz and then cut him in 2023, at which point they won’t owe him any guaranteed money.
